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It's official: This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is...
On Wednesday morning, NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9. We hit a record — the current El Niño is the strongest in recorded history.Before 2015, the...
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Money Velocity Could Be A Problem When Bernanke Takes His Foot Off The...
With the DOW blowing by milestones I went looking for other things that were at record levels. The first one that I looked at was M2. No surprise at all, M2 is bigger than ever. Charts of the long and...
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The White House Closing To The Public Isn't Just About Saving A Few Bucks
So the White House is closing its doors to the public today. Budget cuts related to the sequester are the blame.The WH tours are closed after a decision by the Secret Service that it could not afford...
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Paul Krugman Has Got His Social Security Facts Wrong
Paul Krugman had another of his nasty moment on TV Sunday when he took on Senator Ron Johnson (R, WI) (ABC -Link). The topic was Social Security. I want to throw my two cents into this fray.Senator...
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Don't Waste Your Time Reading Paul Ryan's Budget
Congressman Ryan laid huge egg today with his budget. What’s wrong with this guy? Can’t he count votes?The proposal by Ryan is to end Obamacare. While there might be some merit to that notion – it...
View ArticleSocial Security Official Presents Plan B: Raid The Retirement Fund
Stephan Goss, the chief actuary for Social Security (SS) provided a detailed report on the status of the SS Disability Fund (DI) to the House of Representitives. The short story is that DI is going...
View ArticleLuxembourg Has A Very Serious Case Of 'Money Center Debt Syndrome'
What an interesting week. Monday brought a wave of righteous indignation over the thought of a haircut for Cypriot depositors, on Friday everyone is cheering the idea that deposits over E100k are going...
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Old People Are Leading Japan Into A Crisis
The Japanese Social Security system has a report out on the aging problem in Japan (Forbeslink). That Japan has a rapidly aging population is an old story, but the new numbers are worth...
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Japan's Gains Are Losses For Everyone Else
My daughter called last night, she’s made her reservations for a honeymoon in Japan. Six months ago she was leaning on going to Thailand, but the cost of a trip to Japan has fallen so sharply, that she...
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The Government's New 'Fast Forward' Bonds Are Going To Cost America A Bundle
The following is a wonkish discussion of one aspect of the White House budget. The President’s budget will never see the light of day, but I think it is instructive to look at this component of the...
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We Will Continue To Burn Our Food And Use Inefficient Energy Supplies For Years
I got a laugh reading this one from the CBO (Link).The cost of the review of ethanol is a measly $1m. Why has it taken so many years to have this study? More importantly, what happens if this study...
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Bernanke's Transparent Communication Policy Apparently Includes Leaking Info...
How about Bernanke’s communication policy? The most important development for monetary policy in the last four years comes from a planted story in the Wall Street Journal on a Friday night. While I’m...
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Here's Why Fannie Mae's Stock Price Makes No Sense To Everyone (FNMA)
How about Fannie’s stock of late? The low-high for May saw a 660%% swing. There were several days of +200Mn shares crossing hands. The stock fell off a cliff at $5.40 and 36-hours later it was back...
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The US Military's Retirement Fund Is Getting Torpedoed By A Bad Bet On Inflation
The TIPS market has told an interesting story the past month. The implied inflation rate has collapsed. As of this morning, the market is pricing inflation at 1.94%%. A few month ago it was 2.5%.The...
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The New Labor Secretary Said Something That Contradicts Headlines From Almost...
NOTE: This post was originally published on Friday, September 6.Tom Perez got the job as Secretary of Labor just two days ago. All smiles with the Veep for the affair.After the payroll numbers this...
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Taper Talk Is Gumming Up The Corporate Bond Market
The capital market for new issues and refinancing of corporate debt has been on a tear the past few months – I think that ended yesterday. That’s because the dreaded Taper Talk has resurfaced. The Fed...
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Buckle Up, Because The Fed Faces A Big Test Next Week
Two theories to explain the year-to-date global market dumpathon.The first is that it’s all local issues – no single macro story explains the depth of the sell off. Some examples (and why they are...
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Keep An Eye On These 3 Currency Pairs
Three major FX pairs are closing in on rates where the big figures start with 120. The ones that have my interest are:USDJPY = 119.40EURCHF =1.2030EURUSD = 1.2335USDJPY looks like it wants to cross...
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Trust Is The Lynchpin Of The Capital Markets — The Swiss National Bank Just...
I wrote about the Swiss National Bank being forced to abandon its currency peg to the Euro on 12/3/14,12/8/14 and 1/11/15. That said, I’m blown away that this has happened today.Thomas Jordan, the head...
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It's official: This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is...
On Wednesday morning, NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9. We hit a record — the current El Niño is the strongest in recorded history.Before 2015, the...
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